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Soochow securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December. According to the soochow securities Research Report, the CPI of the United States rebounded to +2.75% in November as scheduled, and the CPI that did not exceed expectations cleared the last obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. In the short term, the combination of low base and high viscosity means that CPI is expected to continue to rebound to +2.8% in December. In the medium term, Trump is expected to drive out illegal immigrants on the first day after taking office, which will aggravate the risk of stagflation in the labor market. However, the intensification of wage inflation stickiness may be concealed by the downward movement of non-agricultural centers in the same period, the expectation of increasing oil prices and the high base in the first half of 2025. The market's concern about "stagnation" may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates smoothly in the first half of 2025. However, in the second half of 2025, the cumulative interest rate cuts will give support to the economy, the persistence of inflation stickiness and the landing of Trump's tax reduction policy will force the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December, 25bps in March and June next year, and stop cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. The end point of the policy interest rate in 2025 is [3.75,4.0]%.The first all-green power station base planning based on large-scale compressed air energy storage was released. On December 11th, China Nengjian Digital Group released the all-green power station base planning based on compressed air energy storage in Xining, Qinghai. This is the first all-green power station solution supported by large-scale compressed air energy storage system in high altitude areas around the world, which was independently developed by China Energy Construction Group Co., Ltd. The first batch of projects of the base will take the lead in building a 300 MW compressed air energy storage power station project in guinan county, Hainan, with an overall energy storage capacity of 1.2 million kilowatts, which will effectively enhance the new energy consumption capacity of Hainan and even Qinghai.The yield of 10-year active bonds in China inter-bank bond market initially dropped by more than 3 basis points to 1.775% and then hit a record low. The yield of 30-year active bonds in China inter-bank bond market initially dropped by nearly 4 basis points to 2%, also hitting a record low.

After the release of the Bank of Japan's short-term report, the yen rose slightly.CITIC Securities: Short-term white horse style may be dominated by stages due to compensatory growth and repair. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that looking forward to 2025, we expect that the market style will gradually switch from individual investors to institutional investors, and ETF will become an important configuration tool. We believe that the construction of ETF portfolio should mainly depend on the judgment of style rotation and timing. We believe that in the short term, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party and the Central Economic Work Conference will once again confirm the policy inflection point, which is expected to boost institutional investors' risk appetite, and the white horse style may prevail in stages due to compensatory growth and repair. However, in the large-cycle environment, it is still unable to meet the conditions for the continued dominance of white horse stocks, and it is necessary to continue to observe the price signals and policies.After the release of the Bank of Japan's short-term report, the yen rose slightly.

A delegation of Japanese young and middle-aged military officers visited China. Today, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, said that at the invitation of China Institute of International Strategic Studies, a delegation of Japanese young and middle-aged military officers will visit China from November 26th to December 4th. The Sino-Japanese exchange program for young and middle-aged officers began in 2001, which played an important role in enhancing understanding and trust between the defense departments of the two countries. We are willing to work with Japan to continue to promote mutual visits and exchanges and provide positive energy for the improvement and development of bilateral relations.BlackRock suggested that investors should consider allocating up to 2% in Bitcoin. BlackRock, an asset management company, reported that interested investors are advised to consider allocating up to 2% of their portfolio in Bitcoin. "We believe that investors with proper management ability and risk tolerance have reason to include Bitcoin in multi-asset portfolios," BlackRock's four-member senior management team pointed out in the report. Team members include Samara Cohen, Chief Investment Officer of ETF, and Paul Henderson, Senior Portfolio Strategist of BlackRock Investment Institute.US Congressman French Hill will take over as the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. On December 12, local time, the reporter learned that French Hill, a Republican congressman and former banker from Arkansas, will be the next chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. The Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives is an important body of the US Congress, which is responsible for supervising the financial industry and formulating relevant legislation. Its responsibilities cover banking, the overall financial system and the cryptocurrency market. Hill will succeed retiring Patrick Patrick McHenry, whose formal appointment is expected to be approved by the Republican Party in the next few days. (CCTV)